Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Assignment Essay

Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Assignment Essay

Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Assignment Essay

Access this Plan online at: www.CityofBerkeley.info/Mitigation

Front cover image: “Green Season” by Daniel Parks, used under CC BY 2.0

Back cover image: “Berkeley Kite Festival” by Daniel Parks, used under CC BY 2.0 / Cropped from original

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Acknowledgements

City Council

Tom Bates, Mayor

Linda Maio, District 1

Darryl Moore, District 2

Max Anderson, District 3

Jesse Arreguin, District 4

Laurie Capitelli, District 5

Susan Wengraf, District 6

Kriss Worthington, District 7

Gordon Wozniak, District 8

City Manager

Christine Daniel

Project Manager

Sarah Lana, Emergency Services Coordinator, City of Berkeley

Chief Technical Advisor

Danielle Hutchings Mieler, Earthquake and Hazards Program Coordinator, Association of Bay Area Governments

City of Berkeley Project Team Nabil Al-Hadithy, HazMat Manager

Alex Amoroso, Senior Planner

Eric Angstadt, Director of Planning

Janet Berreman, Health Officer

David Brannigan, Office of Emergency Services Captain

Timothy Burroughs, Climate Action Coordinator

Karl Busche, Hazardous Materials Specialist II

Khin Chin, Associate Management Analyst

Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Assignment Essay

Acknowledgements

City of Berkeley 2014 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Acknowledgements-1

Cristi Delgado, GIS Coordinator

Neal DeSnoo, Sustainability Coordinator

Gilbert Dong, Fire Chief

Susan Ferrera, Parks Superintendent

Randolph Files, Police Lieutenant

Elizabeth Greene, Senior Planner

Philip Harrington, Deputy Director of Public Works

Lorin Jensen, Supervising Civil Engineer

Jennifer Lazo, Emergency Services Coordinator

Aaron Lee, Deputy Fire Chief

John Mann, Waterfront Manager

Jenny McNulty, Building & Safety Division Program and Administration Manager

Jane Micallef, Director of Health, Housing & Community Services

Brent Nelson, Housing Inspector Supervisor

Manuel Ramirez, Manager of Environmental Health

Steven Riggs, Deputy Fire Marshal

William Rogers, Deputy City Manager

Alex Roshal, Building Official

Debbie Sanderson, Land Use Planning Manager (retired)

Marna Schwartz, Sustainability Outreach Specialist

Sally Zarnowitz, Senior Historic Preservation Planner

Technical Reviewers

Bill Cain, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute Northern California Chapter

Robert Chew, Division Chief, East Bay Operations, CALFIRE

David Cliché, Building Official and Floodplain Manager, Solano County Department of Resource Management

Julie Ekstrom, Science Fellow, Natural Resources Defense Council

Mark Gilligan, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute Northern California Chapter

Keith Knudsen, United States Geological Survey

Alan Kropp, Alan Kropp & Associates

Tim McCrink, Supervising Engineering Geologist, California Geological Survey

Mona Mena, Alameda County Public Health Department (retired)

Acknowledgements

City of Berkeley 2014 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Acknowledgements-2

Kevin Miller, California Office of Emergency Services

Sara Polgar, Coastal Planner, San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission

Charles Real, California Geological Survey

Bruce Riordan, Climate Strategist, Bay Area Joint Policy Committee

Charles Scawthorn, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute Northern California Chapter

Nancy Tennebaum, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute Northern California Chapter

Zan Turner, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute Northern California Chapter

Nathan Wood, United States Geological Survey

Institutional Key Partner Representatives

Amina Assefa, Manager, Office of Emergency Management, UC Berkeley

Aaron Rezendez, Pacific Gas & Electric

Aaron Ward, Deputy Chief, Protective Services, Berkley Lab

Amanda Cundiff, Regional Partnership Office, U.S. Forest Service

Amy Kiser, Program Director, Ecology Center

Arrietta Chakos, Policy Advisor, Association of Bay Area Governments

Bernadette Cormier, Transportation Department Manager, Berkley Unified School District

Bryan Byrd, Communications Director, Comcast

Carl Scheuerman, Director of Regulatory Affairs, Sutter Health Facility Planning & Development

Charlie Bowen, Senior Path Builder, Berkeley Path Wanderers Association

Christine Shaff, Director of Communications for Facility Services, UC Berkeley

Clay Westlake, Area Manager, Kinder Morgan Corporation

Craig Whitman, Office of Earthquake Engineers, Caltrans

Dana Brechwald, Earthquake and Hazard Specialist, Association of Bay Area Governments

Daryl Shy, Deputy Fire Marshal, UC Berkeley

David Michel, CaLEAP Program, California Energy Commission

David Rehnstrom, Senior Civil Engineer, East Bay Municipal Utility District

Elizabeth Bialek, East Bay Municipal Utility District

Elizabeth Smith, Regional Director, Environmental Health & Safety, Sutter Health

Genevieve Pastor-Cohen, Senior Emergency Planning Coordinator, City of Oakland

Gina Blus, Sustainable Communities Supervisor, Pacific Gas & Electric

Acknowledgements

City of Berkeley 2014 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Acknowledgements-3

Heidi Oiol, Associate Civil Engineer in Wastewater Engineering Division, East Bay Municipal Utility District

Jacquelin Poon, Compliance Manager, Lifelong Medical

James C. Breitlow, Health, Environment, Safety and Security, Bayer Corporation

Janetta Johnson, East Bay Municipal Utility District

Janice Edwards, Communications Manager/Project Manager, LifeLong Medical

Joe Gomez, Emergency Planner, Alameda County Sheriff’s Office

John McPartland, Board of Directors, Bay Area Rapid Transit

John Ruiz, Emergency Management Coordinator, UC Berkeley

Jose L. Rios, Senior Civil Engineer, Water Distribution Planning Division, East Bay Municipal Utility District

Katie Grote, Community Energy Manager, Pacific Gas & Electric

Keith Skinner, President, Berkeley Path Wanderers Association

Ken Blonski, Fire Chief, East Bay Regional Park District

Ken Fattlar, Northern California Director of Network Operations, Verizon Wireless

Lance Calkins, Fire Chief, City of Albany

Lew Jones, Maintenance Department Director, Berkeley Unified School District

Lori Elefant, Management Analyst, City of Emeryville

Lori Kingshott, Universal Account Manager, AT&T

Michael Ambrose, Manager of Regulatory Compliance, East Bay Municipal Utility District

Michelle Blackwell, East Bay Municipal Utility District

Mike Sabel, Continuity Planner, UC Berkeley

Nick Zubel, Emergency Preparedness Manager, Alameda County Fire Department

Nicole Stewart, Area Manager Brisbane Terminal & Richmond Station of the Kinder Morgan Corporation

Pam Cameron, Associate Director, UC Berkeley – University Health Services

Rick Wilson, Senior Engineering Geologist, California Geological Survey Robert Braga, Branch Chief Maintenance Services/Emergency Management: Planning & Training, Caltrans

Sara Wynne, Emergency Management Program Specialist, Berkeley Lab

Shirley Slaughter, Business Officer and Safety Committee Chair, Berkeley City College

Steve Prey, Energy Conservation Program Coordinator, Caltrans

Stuart Nishenko, Senior Seismologist, Pacific Gas & Electric

Tom Klatt, Facilities Planner, UC Berkeley

Acknowledgements

City of Berkeley 2014 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Acknowledgements-4

Tracy Johnson, Seismic Engineering Manager, Bay Area Rapid Transit

Vincent De Lange, Senior Civil Engineer, East Bay Municipal Utility District

William R. Kirkpatrick, Manager, Water Distribution Planning Division, East Bay Municipal Utility District

Additional support provided by:

Wendy Boemecke, Emergency Services Coordinator, California Office of Emergency Services

Ricardo Castillo, Emergency Services Coordinator, California Office of Emergency Services

Victoria LaMar-Haas, Senior Emergency Services Coordinator, California Office of Emergency Services

Acknowledgements

City of Berkeley 2014 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Acknowledgements-5

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Table of Contents Executive Summary

Section 1: Mitigation Strategy

Section 2: Implementing, Monitoring and Updating the Plan

Section 3: Hazard Analysis

Section 4: Mitigation Programs and Resources

Section 5: Community Profile and Trends

List of City Owned and Leased Buildings

Table of Contents

City of Berkeley 2014 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan TOC-1

Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Assignment Essay

Executive Summary Berkeley is a vibrant and unique community. But every aspect of the city – its economic prosperity, social and cultural diversity, and historical character – could be dramatically altered by a serious earthquake or fire. While we cannot predict or protect ourselves against every possible hazard that may strike the community, we can anticipate many impacts and take steps to reduce the harm they will cause. We can make sure that tomorrow’s Berkeley continues to reflect our current values.

The City and community members have been working together for years to address certain aspects of the risk – such as strengthening structures, distributing disaster supply caches, and enforcing vegetation management measures to reduce fire risk. The 2004 Disaster Mitigation Plan formalized this process, ensuring that these activities continued to be explored and improved over time. Over many years, this constant focus on disasters has made Berkeley, its residents and businesses, much safer.

This 2014 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan continues this ongoing process to evaluate the risks that different hazards pose to Berkeley, and to engage the community in dialogue to identify the most important steps that the City and its partners should pursue to reduce these risks.

The federal Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 called for all communities to prepare mitigation plans. The City adopted a plan that met the requirements of DMA 2000 on June 22, 2004. This is the 2014 update to that plan, which ensures that Berkeley will remain eligible to apply for mitigation grants before disasters, and to receive federal mitigation funding and additional State recovery funding after disasters.

Risks in Berkeley A sound disaster resilience program must be founded on reliable information about the types and scale of damage that different hazards could cause. To develop the 2004 Disaster Mitigation plan, the City conducted detailed research on four major natural and two major “manmade” hazards present in Berkeley. These hazards were earthquake, wildland-urban interface fire, landslide, flood, hazardous materials release, and terrorism. Since that time, new maps and data depicting the extent and possible impacts from tsunami and climate change have become available. In 2011, the City added these hazards to the list.

As in 2004, earthquake and wildland-urban interface fire are the two hazards of greatest concern. These hazards have the potential for catastrophic impacts to Berkeley.

Hazards of Greatest Concern

Earthquake We do not know when the next major earthquake will strike Berkeley, the United States Geological Survey calculated that there is a 63 percent chance that a 6.7 magnitude earthquake will strike the Bay Area by 2038, and a 31 percent chance that that earthquake will occur on the Hayward/Rogers Creek Fault system, which runs directly through Berkeley.i The 1994 Northridge earthquake was also magnitude 6.7, and caused $28 billion in losses.

A catastrophic earthquake on the Hayward Fault would cause very violent shaking and three types of ground failure in Berkeley. Liquefaction is likely in the westernmost parts of the city.

Executive Summary – Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Assignment Essay

City of Berkeley 2014 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Summary-1

Liquefaction can destroy pavements and dislodge foundations. Surface fault rupture could occur along the Fault, causing displacements of up to several feet. Landslides are expected in the Berkeley hills during the next earthquake, particularly if the earthquake occurs during the rainy winter months. Landslide movement could range from a few inches to tens of feet; ground surface displacements as small as a few inches are enough to break typical foundations.

In a 6.9 magnitude earthquake on the Hayward Fault, the City estimates that over 600 housing units in Berkeley will be completely destroyed and 20,000 more will be damaged. One thousand to 4,000 families may need temporary shelter. Depending on the disaster scenario, one hundred people could be killed in Berkeley alone, and many more would be injured. Commercial buildings, utilities, and public roads will be disabled or destroyed. The earthquake could also spark numerous fires at a time when water systems may not be functioning. This plan estimates that building damage in Berkeley alone could exceed $1.8 billion, out of a multi-billion dollar regional loss, with losses to business activities and infrastructure adding to this figure. Low- income housing units are expected to be damaged at a higher rate than other residences. Other types of housing, such as condominiums, may replace them when land owners rebuild. This could lead to profound demographic shifts in Berkeley.

Wildland-Urban Interface Fire Berkeley is vulnerable to a wind-driven fire starting along the city’s eastern border. The fire risk facing the people and properties in the eastern hills is compounded by the area’s mountainous topography, limited water supply, minimal access and egress routes, and location, overlaid upon the Hayward Fault. Berkeley’s flatlands are also exposed to a fire that spreads west from the hills. The flatlands are densely-covered with old wooden buildings housing low-income and vulnerable populations, including isolated seniors, persons with disabilities and students.

The high risk of wildland-urban interface (WUI) fire in Berkeley was clearly demonstrated in the 1991 Tunnel Fire, which destroyed 62 homes in Berkeley and more than 3,000 in Oakland. In 1923, an even more devastating fire burned through Berkeley. It began in the open lands of Wildcat Canyon to the northeast and, swept by a hot September wind, penetrated residential north Berkeley and destroyed nearly 600 structures, including homes, apartments, fraternities and sororities, a church, a fire station and a library. The fire burned downhill all the way to Shattuck Avenue in central Berkeleyii. If a fire today burned that same area, 3,000 structures would be destroyed, with losses for buildings alone exceeding $3 billion. Destruction of contents in all of the homes and businesses burned could increase the losses by another $600 million. Depending on the speed of the fire spread, lives of Berkeley residents could also be lost. Many established small businesses, homes, and multi-family apartment buildings, particularly student housing, would be completely destroyed, changing the character of Berkeley forever.

Natural Hazards of Concern

This plan identified three additional natural hazards of concern: rainfall-induced landslide, flood, and tsunami. These hazards could cause significant damage and losses in Berkeley. However, unlike earthquake and WUI fire, their impacts are likely to be smaller, and confined to specific areas.

Berkeley has a number of deep-seated landslides that continuously move, with the rate of movement affected by rainfall and groundwater conditions. Significant localized areas of the

Executive Summary

City of Berkeley 2014 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Summary-2

Berkeley hills face risk from landslide, and a major slide could endanger lives and impact scores of properties, utilities and infrastructure.

Floods also could damage property and cause significant losses in Berkeley. Flooding can occur when stormwater exceeds the capacity of a creek channel, or the capacity of the storm drain system. Creek flooding in Berkeley has the potential to affect about 675 structures, mainly in the western, industrial area of the city. It is unlikely that floodwaters will reach higher than three feet, but damages to homes, businesses, and their contents could total almost $150 million. With few properties covered by flood insurance, these costs would be borne primarily by Berkeley residents and businesses.

Tsunamis, though rare inside the San Francisco Bay, can occur from large offshore Subduction style earthquakes around the Pacific Rim. Small, local tsunamis can also result from offshore strike-slip Faults such as parts of the San Andreas Fault of the Peninsula and the Hayward Fault through San Pablo Bay. The March 2011 Japan earthquake generated a devastating tsunami, which reached the Bay Area and caused minor damage to docks and floats in the Berkeley Marina. A larger tsunami could impact much more of Berkeley’s western shores. Buildings, infrastructure, and roadways could be damaged, and debris and hazardous materials could cause post-tsunami fires. Deaths are possible if individuals choose not to evacuate hazardous areas, do not understand tsunami warnings, or are unable to evacuate.

Manmade Hazards of Concern

This plan addresses climate change, hazardous materials release, and terrorism as Berkeley’s three manmade hazards of concern.

Like regions across the globe, the San Francisco Bay Area is experiencing and will continue to increasingly experience the impacts of the changing climate. By 2100, average temperatures in the San Francisco Bay Area will increase up to 11° F. In 2100, Berkeley will have 6-10 additional heat waves each year, which will disproportionately impact the elderly, children under five, and the low-income community members.

Climate change will also cause additional extreme rainfall events, which will lead to more flooding. San Francisco Bay sea-levels will rise up to 55” by 2100, impacting infrastructure and community members in west Berkeley. Climate change impacts will also exacerbate the natural hazards of concern outlined in this plan. Rising sea levels will increase Berkeley’s exposure to earthquake liquefaction, tsunami inundation, and flooding. Increases in precipitation and severe storms will make flooding more frequent, and will increase the landslide risk in the hills. California’s water security will be reduced, and drought will become a more persistent issue.

Over the last twenty years, Berkeley has seen a more than 90 percent reduction in the number of facilities with extremely hazardous materials. The City carefully tracks hazardous materials within its borders, and works closely with companies using large amounts of potentially dangerous materials. The City has identified fifteen facilities in Berkeley with sufficiently large quantities of toxic chemicals to pose a high risk to the community. Hazardous materials also travel through Berkeley by truck and rail. Natural hazards identified in the plan could trigger the release of hazardous materials.

It is not possible to estimate the probability of a terrorist attack. Experts prioritize terrorism readiness efforts by identifying critical sites and assessing these sites’ vulnerability to terrorist

Executive Summary – Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Assignment Essay

City of Berkeley 2014 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Summary-3

attack. City officials are currently working with State and regional groups to prevent and prepare for terrorist attacks.

Disaster Resilience Managing risk requires government and its partners to identify and evaluate risks, and implement and maintain policies, practices and projects to reduce those risks. Many innovative Berkeley initiatives are increasing our community’s disaster resilience:

• The City has strengthened its ability to serve the community during and after disasters by seismically upgrading or replacing buildings that house critical City functions. Since 2004, Berkeley has strengthened or replaced its City Hall, all seven fire stations, all five libraries, its public works maintenance building, and its animal shelter.

• The Berkeley Unified School District, supported by voter-approved bonds, has strengthened all public schools.

• Over 90% of Berkeley’s 700 unreinforced masonry buildings have been retrofitted or demolished since a City mandate began in 1991.

• Berkeley was the first city in the nation to inventory the community’s soft-story buildings. In December 2013, City Council adopted an ordinance requiring soft-story buildings with five or more units to be retrofitted within five years. .

• Berkeley has also developed innovative programs to encourage building owners to strengthen their own structures. The City has distributed over $9 million through the Transfer Tax Rebate Program, which reduces the real estate transfer tax to building owners who perform seismic safety work.

• Four different programs contribute to vegetation management citywide, removing thousands of tons of potential fire fuels each year.

• The City enforces several programs to reduce Berkeley’s fire hazard in the hills. These include strict building and fire code provisions, as well as more restrictive local amendments for new and renovated construction, along with vegetation control inspections in high-risk properties.

• The Disaster Cache Program incentivizes community-building for disaster readiness. To date, the City has awarded 87 caches of disaster response equipment to neighborhoods, congregations, and UC Berkeley Panhellenic groups that have undertaken disaster readiness activities.

• The City recently hired two positions tasked specifically with increasing disaster readiness in Berkeley’s vulnerable and underserved populations.

• Berkeley’s 2009 Climate Action Plan has served as a model for jurisdictions across the nation. The Climate Action Plan also guides the City’s new climate adaptation strategy.

These programs, and many others, place Berkeley as a leader in disaster management. Long-term maintenance and improvements to these programs will help to protect the Berkeley community in our next disaster.

Executive Summary: City of Berkeley 2014 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Summary-4

Mitigation Strategy Berkeley aims to be a resilient community that can survive, recover from, and thrive after a disaster, while maintaining its unique character and way of life. Berkeley envisions a community in which the people, buildings, and infrastructure, in and serving Berkeley, are resilient to disasters; City government provides critical services in the immediate aftermath of a devastating event of any kind; and basic government and commercial functions resume within thirty days of a damaging earthquake or other significant event.

For many years, the City has pursued initiatives to identify and mitigate Berkeley’s hazard vulnerabilities. In 2014, the City is continuing this effort: this plan outlines a five-year strategic plan to bring Berkeley closer to that vision. This plan identifies three disaster mitigation approaches to increase Berkeley’s resilience:

1. The City will evaluate and strengthen all City-owned structures, particularly those needed for critical services, to ensure that the community can be served adequately after a disaster.

2. The City will establish and maintain incentive programs and standards to encourage local residents and businesses to upgrade the hazard-resistance of their own properties.

3. The City will actively engage other local and regional groups to collaboratively work towards mitigation actions that help maintain Berkeley’s way of life and its ability to be fully functional after a disaster event.

This plan has four objectives for reducing disaster risk in Berkeley:

A. Reduce the potential for loss of life, injury and economic damage to Berkeley residents and businesses from earthquakes, wildfires, landslides, floods, tsunamis, climate change, and their secondary impacts.

B. Increase the ability of the City government to serve the community during and after hazard events by mitigating risk to key city functions such as response, recovery and rebuilding.

C. Protect Berkeley’s unique character and values from being compromised by hazard events.

D. Encourage mitigation activities to increase the disaster resilience of institutions, private companies and lifeline systems that are essential to Berkeley’s functioning.

Actions specified in the 2014 mitigation strategy were inspired by multiple elements of the City’s General Plan, and specified through collaborative planning processes among City staff and key institutional partners. 2014 mitigation actions are presented in high, medium, and low priority categories. Generally, high and medium priority actions address Berkeley’s hazards of greatest concern—earthquake and wildland-urban interface fire. High and medium priority actions can be completed in the five-year time frame covered by this strategy. Implementation of medium and low actions is dependent on outside sources of funding becoming available. Resource availability will strongly influence the pace of achievements.